Will Scotland at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.